EPOCH 10: BIOTECH MARKET RESEARCH $RNA

Avidity BioSciences

Mark your calendars Avidity Biosciences is scheduled to present new AOC-1001 long-term efficacy and safety data from the MARINA-OLE trial in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) at the 2024 Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA) Clinical & Scientific Conference.  Options pricing originally suggested 40-50% volatility, that is now don to 10-15%

***NOTE: this past week the company announced a $400M follow-on financing. We all suspect the investors saw the data ahead of time and it is unlikely anyone is putting down a bet that big if they do not like what they are seeing. As a result the stock has run up hard, so the question now is does the data become a sell the news event? Or do late comers who are not sophisticated enough to understand what has happened bid it up lightly.

Every Monday we are out with public biotech research, profiling biotech companies with near term catalysts. This will focus primarily on the major market moving biotech events such as data readouts from the major scientific conferences as well as potential regulatory approvals.

We will not offer specific trading advice (and we do not hold any publicly traded biotech equity), but rather flag emerging events that will likely materially drive stock prices (sometimes +/-100% in either direction).

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HOW TO PLAY BIOTECH APPROVAL/DATA READOUTS ANNOUNCEMENTS

While biotech equities will move on news of announcement, often if there is high conviction in a positive read, a large run up ahead of the news will occur and the actual event turns into a sell the news event. Sometimes, investors wait for the actual event to make a long/short decision. And obviously if the news is disappointing (more often than not) the stock will tank.

This is not financial advice so you will have to make your own call on how to best play these events. Our aim is simply to flag catalysts with high projected volatility.

ALERT: Phase 1/2 AOC-1001 data from the MARINA-OLE trial in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1)

DATE: March 4 2024

IMPLIED VOLATILITY: +/- 10-15%

BACKGROUND: