Epoch 26: BIOPHARMA HISTORY & BEYOND (Part 3 of 3)

The Algorithm Era (2036-2050)

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Hello Avatar! Welcome back for another week of biotech analysis. Today we will conclude our 3 part series on the history of the biopharma industry and where the path forward leads.  The saying goes, “you can’t know where you are headed unless you know where you came from.”  Two weeks ago we brought you up to speed on the early history of the industry as it matured into the Blockbuster Era of the 1990s into the early 2000s.  We then moved to the Specialization Era of the mid-2000s which we are just transitioning out of.  We described how pharma has grown into the “too big to fail” status of today where the ability to generate growth has become more and more challenging.  Last week we went into detail on the next phase of the industry which is just kicking off - the Polyindicaton Era.  A time in which growth will be delivered via mega-blockbuster franchises for common disease which can be characterized as rapid franchise builds.  Today we conclude the discussion with discussion of the future state of biopharma - a world where classical big pharma R&D infrastructure integrates with digital technologies to usher in a new paradigm of modern medicine - the “Algorithm Era”.

If you're not subbed - it's $5 a month, the price of a grande!  The Thursday market updates will remain FREE and under the paid umbrella.  Today concludes the 3 part Series on the history of Biopharma and beyond.  However, we are not done completely with the topic.  Over the next 3 weeks we will continue to explore the coming integration of techbio with biopharma.  Next week we will look to understand the differences between the big tech and big pharma business models.  The following week we will look more closely at what is happening in AI today. And finally 3 weeks from today we will explore potential company phenotypes for Biopharma 2050.   Monday (tomorrow) we are back with public company research from Biogen ($BIIB) and their upcoming PDUFA for full approval of LEQEMBI in Alzheimer's

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Enough shilling for the day, lots to cover this week, let's get started!

THE ALGORITHM ERA

This week we are back with part 3 of our focus on industry history and the path forward.  For the purpose of the discussion we will continue to follow the framework introduced by Torreya (now Stifel) characterizing the different eras of the pharma industry - both past and future.  Apologies, links to the full length report are now disabled.

The main purpose of us going into detail on industry history is so that we can eventually shift the discussion to focus on the forward topics in order to prepare ourselves to be competitive in the future.  Today we shift to the forward looking discussion which should be interesting!  As a reminder we will run through the analysis as follows:

Epoch 24: (1980’s-2021) both the “Big Pharma Era” and “Specialization Era”

Epoch 25: (2022-2035): the “Poly-Indication Era”

Epoch 26: (2036-2050): the “Algorithm Era”

Today, as the nascent, but high growth AI industry is beginning to take form we note a number of themes evolving which will undoubtedly shape the reality of tomorrow as they mature.  The figure below lays out a number of key themes which today’s technology is enabling.  We see this as the framework for the Algorithm Era as just about all of these concepts are being advanced via the integration of digital and biopharma.

The 4 themes which will drive the Algorithm Era include: