Epoch 27: Trump vs Biden & How to Sanely Discuss

Pros and Cons for Biopharma, Tips for Discussing with Colleagues

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Hello Avatar! Welcome back for another week of biotech analysis. Today is Sunday, which means this is our Building Biotech newsletter that is focused on discussing biopharma strategy topics. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the biopharma industry faces potential impacts depending on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the presidency. Regardless if it is Biden or a replacement, we expect the Democrat policies to be similar to those which come from whoever is controlling Biden today. In the first part of todays discussion we will explore the pros and cons of each administration's policies for the biopharma sector, covering key aspects such as deregulation, drug pricing, healthcare policy, and innovation support. In the second part, we will provide practical guidance on how to discuss these politically charged topics with colleagues, friends, and family in a constructive and respectful manner.

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INTRO

As noted above, today’s discussion will be presented in two sections.  The first part will explore the pros and cons for biopharma under Trump or Biden 2.0.  The second part will be a guide for how to discuss these topics in a rationale sane way, particularly with colleagues at work.

We also encourage you to review our previous writings on this topic:

PART I: The Potential Impact of a Trump or Biden Presidency on the Biopharma Industry (2025-2029)

The biopharma industry is a critical contributor to US GDP. The industry is significantly regulated and largely shaped by various regulatory, economic, and political dynamics depending on the presidency. With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump securing their parties' nominations for the 2024 election, the industry's future hinges on who will take office from 2025 to 2029. Today we consider potential pros and cons of a Trump versus a Biden presidency for the biopharma industry, examining their policies and projected impacts on drug prices, innovation, and global market strategies.

THE CURRENT SITUATION

Joe Biden’s job-approval rating stands at 39%, placing him roughly in a tie for the lowest of any president at this point in their term in American polling history. In the six states that could prove decisive in November, Biden trails by one to six percentage points. Even in Wisconsin and Michigan, where he is closest, Democratic candidates have historically underperformed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Winning both would still leave Biden needing one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election. 

These figures suggest that the race is hardly a "toss-up." While the five months before the vote give Biden time to make up ground, and polls might underestimate his true support, any polling error could also benefit Donald Trump. 

The Economist’s statistical model of the election gives Biden a one-in-three chance of re-election, making a potential victory for him a mild surprise. Four years ago, this model gave Biden an 83% chance. 

In 2016, Trump took Michigan, but Biden flipped it back to blue in 2020. Despite Trump losing support in Wisconsin, current data shows Biden with only a slim lead. With both candidates statistically tied or holding marginal leads in various surveys, the outcome remains uncertain. Battleground state polls are crucial as the election will likely be determined by a few key swing states due to the Electoral College system, which requires a candidate to secure 270 electoral votes for victory.

So that is the current state of things, IF you believe the polling. To be honest, and we will give our take for a moment here, we like many of our countrymen have lost all trust in the system which lacks transparency and appears to be a process corrupted by ballot harvesting, lawfare, misinformation, and censorship.  Maybe we are naive to think our vote ever mattered and the process was clean and fair, but more than ever it does not appear the will of the people have much say in electing our president and representatives.  We worry more than ever about how human psychology has been and continues to be manipulated by the power hungry.

But we digress - there will be a president post election and the purpose of today is to run through how that may impact our industry.  Obviously there are pros and cons to either scenario.

Below we will jump into our pros and cons - we also encourage you to check out a recent BioSpace write which focuses on Trump’s policies which you can read here.

POSITIVES UNDER TRUMP 2.0