EPOCH 47: BIOTECH MARKET RESEARCH $SWTX $PFE

SpringWorks & Pfizer Thanksgiving Bonus

Mark your calendars for the anticipated regulatory decision on SpringWorks Therapeutics which has an upcoming PDUFA date on the calendar.  FDA will have an approval decision on Nirogacestat for desmoid tumors on Monday.  Options pricing indicates a potential move of over 15-20% as investors are poised for a significant market impact.

As a bonus we will have a brief analysis of the Pfizer Phase 2 data readout on danuglipron oral for obesity.  Normally Ph2 data would not move the needle on stock with a market cap like PFE.  However, the stock is so oversold we see this an opportunity for material price movement off a high profile Ph2 readout.  The options data seems to support this as well with a 5-10% move reflected in pricing.

Every Monday we are out with public biotech research, profiling biotech companies with near term catalysts (today this week due to holiday). This will focus primarily on the major market moving biotech events such as data readouts from the major scientific conferences as well as potential regulatory approvals.

We will not offer specific trading advice (and we do not hold any publicly traded biotech equity), but rather flag emerging events that will likely materially drive stock prices (sometimes +/-100% in either direction).

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HOW TO PLAY BIOTECH APPROVAL/DATA READOUTS ANNOUNCEMENTS

While biotech equities will move on news of announcement, often if there is high conviction in a positive read, a large run up ahead of the news will occur and the actual event turns into a sell the news event. Sometimes, investors wait for the actual event to make a long/short decision. And obviously if the news is disappointing (more often than not) the stock will tank.

This is not financial advice so you will have to make your own call on how to best play these events.

ALERT: SpringWork Therapeutics - PDUFA on Nirogacestat for desmoid tumors

DATE: November 27, 2023

IMPLIED VOLATILITY: +/- 15-20%

BACKGROUND: